Brazilian Serie A, round 29 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã)
Fluminense — Coritiba
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4:0Came true
In short
Final score 4:0: the model's most likely outcome, Fluminense to win (75%), came true.
Fluminense are clear favourites: 75% against 9% for the opponent, draw 16%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Fluminense are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fluminense — Coritiba What is xG? | 2.2–0.7 | |
| Fluminense not to lose | 91% | |
| Coritiba not to lose | 25% | |
| No draw | 84% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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Form
- 20.09away · Corinthians3:1
- 16.09away · Club Atlético Platense1:2
- 12.09away · Atlético-MG1:3
- 09.09Club Atlético Platense2:0
- 06.09Vasco da Gama1:0
- 20.09away · Vasco da Gama0:5
- 12.09Athletico Paranaense3:3
- 06.09Mirassol1:2
- 01.09away · Remo3:2
- 24.08Corinthians2:1
Head to head
- 05.04.2026Coritiba — Fluminense1:1
- 26.11.2023Fluminense — Coritiba2:1
- 25.07.2023Coritiba — Fluminense2:0
- 21.08.2022Fluminense — Coritiba5:2
- 01.05.2022Coritiba — Fluminense3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Copa Libertadores | Athletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | +14 | 53 |
| 4, Copa Libertadores | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | +11 | 51 |
| 5, Copa Libertadores | Bahia | 30 | 13 | +8 | 49 |
| 10, Copa Sudamericana | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 0 | 39 |
| 11, Copa Sudamericana | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | -5 | 36 |
Next matches
- FlamengoFluminense11 October · Brasileirao6720121The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- CoritibaBotafogo12 October · Brasileirao3029412The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
Brasileirao on the same day
- 2628462The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:2.2.7
- 5027231The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 5526191The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 75% will not happen in roughly 25 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →