Brazilian Serie A, round 29 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Nubank Parque
Palmeiras — Bahia
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1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Palmeiras to win (55%), came true.
Palmeiras are clear favourites: 55% against 19% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Palmeiras are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Palmeiras — Bahia What is xG? | 1.7–1.0 | |
| Palmeiras not to lose | 81% | |
| Bahia not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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Form
- 20.09away · Grêmio0:0
- 17.09away · LDU de Quito2:3
- 13.09São Paulo2:0
- 10.09LDU de Quito1:0
- 07.09away · Botafogo0:0
- 21.09away · Athletico Paranaense1:2
- 15.09Remo2:1
- 05.09away · RB Bragantino3:2
- 31.08Internacional3:2
- 23.08away · Vitória2:0
Head to head
- 06.04.2026Bahia — Palmeiras1:2
- 28.09.2025Bahia — Palmeiras1:0
- 28.04.2025Palmeiras — Bahia0:1
- 21.11.2024Bahia — Palmeiras1:2
- 08.07.2024Palmeiras — Bahia2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Copa Libertadores | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | +33 | 64 |
| 2, Copa Libertadores | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | +30 | 63 |
| 3, Copa Libertadores | Athletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | +14 | 53 |
| 4, Copa Libertadores | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | +11 | 51 |
| 5, Copa Libertadores | Bahia | 30 | 13 | +8 | 49 |
| 6, Copa Sudamericana | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | +2 | 48 |
Next matches
- PalmeirasCorinthians11 October · Brasileirao6324121The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.3
- BahiaMirassol12 October · Brasileirao5326211The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
Brasileirao on the same day
- 2628462The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:2.2.7
- 5027231The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 751691The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →