Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 10 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Fortuna Sittard — Excelsior
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Fortuna Sittard 37%, Excelsior 34%, draw 29%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fortuna Sittard — Excelsior What is xG? | 1.6–1.5 | |
| Fortuna Sittard not to lose | 66% | |
| Excelsior not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Fortuna Sittard
- Fortuna Sittard goals
- Excelsior goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10FC Twente1:1
- 19.09away · Willem II1:0
- 12.09Ajax1:5
- 06.09away · ADO Den Haag3:2
- 28.08away · FC Groningen3:2
- 11.10FC Groningen1:5
- 19.09away · Ajax2:2
- 13.09FC Utrecht1:2
- 08.09away · NEC Nijmegen2:2
- 05.09away · Willem II3:0
Head to head
- 20.02.2026Fortuna Sittard — Excelsior2:1
- 19.10.2025Excelsior — Fortuna Sittard1:0
- 03.03.2024Fortuna Sittard — Excelsior5:2
- 26.08.2023Excelsior — Fortuna Sittard2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Groningen | 8 | 4 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | SC Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- NEC NijmegenFC Groningenpreliminary4327291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.6
- PSV EindhovenFeyenoordpreliminary4727261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.6
- Sparta RotterdamAjaxpreliminary2327502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.2
- AZ AlkmaarFC Twentepreliminary4229291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →