UEFA Nations League, round 3, League A, group 1 · Friday, 2 October, MSK · Stade de France
France — Italy
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, France to win (59%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 59% fails in about 41 matches out of 100 on average.
France are clear favourites: 59% against 18% for the opponent, draw 23%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- National-team Elo: France 2103, Italy 1882 — France clearly rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: France — Italy What is xG? | 2.0–1.0 | |
| France not to lose | 82% | |
| Italy not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap France
- France goals
- Italy goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 28.09away · Turkiye4:1
- 25.09Belgium0:2
- 07.06away · Greece1:0
- 03.06away · Luxembourg1:0
- 31.03away · Bosnia and Herzegovina1:1
Head to head
- 17.11.2024Italy — France1:3
- 06.09.2024France — Italy1:3
Table
Next matches
- FranceBelgium5 October · UEFA Nations League5225231The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- ItalyTurkiye5 October · UEFA Nations League5922191The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.1
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 5426201The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- 3826361The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 2228502The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.5
- 6520151The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.5
- 4628261The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.7
- 4630241The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 2424522The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.1
- 5226231The most likely outcome came true: 16:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →