EFL Cup (Carabao Cup), round 4 · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK
Fulham — Crystal Palace
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 28 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Crystal Palace are slightly stronger: 41% against 33%, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fulham — Crystal Palace What is xG? | 1.3–1.5 | |
| Fulham not to lose | 59% | |
| Crystal Palace not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Fulham
- Fulham goals
- Crystal Palace goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Ipswich Town1:2
- 20.09Manchester United1:1
- 15.09away · West Ham United3:2
- 12.09away · Liverpool0:0
- 05.09Crystal Palace2:3
- 11.10Nottingham Forest3:1
- 20.09away · Leeds United0:0
- 17.09Lech Poznań4:0
- 12.09Ipswich Town2:3
- 08.09Middlesbrough3:0
Head to head
- 05.09.2026Fulham — Crystal Palace2:3
- 01.01.2026Crystal Palace — Fulham1:1
- 07.12.2025Fulham — Crystal Palace1:2
- 29.03.2025Fulham — Crystal Palace0:3
- 22.02.2025Fulham — Crystal Palace0:2
EFL Cup on the same day
- Manchester CityBrighton & Hove Albionpreliminary6022171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- SunderlandBrentfordpreliminary2325522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- AFC BournemouthAston Villapreliminary3727361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- LiverpoolChelseapreliminary4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →