EFL Cup (Carabao Cup), round 4 · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK
Manchester City — Brighton & Hove Albion
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 28 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Manchester City are clear favourites: 60% against 17% for the opponent, draw 22%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Manchester City are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Manchester City: 5 wins in a row; Brighton & Hove Albion: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Manchester City 1 win, Brighton & Hove Albion 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Manchester City — Brighton & Hove Albion What is xG? | 2.0–1.0 | |
| Manchester City not to lose | 83% | |
| Brighton & Hove Albion not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Manchester City
- Manchester City goals
- Brighton & Hove Albion goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 11.10away · Liverpool3:0
- 20.09Sunderland5:3
- 17.09Norwich City5:0
- 13.09away · Manchester United1:0
- 08.09away · FC Porto2:0
- 10.10away · Sunderland2:0
- 19.09Arsenal3:0
- 16.09away · Manchester United3:2
- 13.09away · Coventry City5:0
- 05.09Leeds United1:1
Head to head
- 07.01.2026Manchester City — Brighton & Hove Albion1:1
- 31.08.2025Brighton & Hove Albion — Manchester City2:1
- 15.03.2025Manchester City — Brighton & Hove Albion2:2
- 09.11.2024Brighton & Hove Albion — Manchester City2:1
- 25.04.2024Brighton & Hove Albion — Manchester City0:4
EFL Cup on the same day
- SunderlandBrentfordpreliminary2325522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- FulhamCrystal Palacepreliminary3327412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- AFC BournemouthAston Villapreliminary3727361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- LiverpoolChelseapreliminary4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →