EFL Cup (Carabao Cup), round 4 · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK
Sunderland — Brentford
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 28 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Brentford are clear favourites: 52% against 23% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Brentford are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sunderland — Brentford What is xG? | 1.1–1.7 | |
| Sunderland not to lose | 48% | |
| Brentford not to lose | 77% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sunderland
- Sunderland goals
- Brentford goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Brighton & Hove Albion0:2
- 20.09away · Manchester City3:5
- 16.09AZ Alkmaar1:0
- 12.09Arsenal0:2
- 08.09Hull City1:0
- 10.10away · Aston Villa2:2
- 18.09Chelsea3:0
- 15.09away · Reading2:1
- 12.09away · AFC Bournemouth2:2
- 05.09Sunderland1:1
Head to head
- 05.09.2026Brentford — Sunderland1:1
- 07.01.2026Brentford — Sunderland3:0
- 30.08.2025Sunderland — Brentford2:1
EFL Cup on the same day
- Manchester CityBrighton & Hove Albionpreliminary6022171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- FulhamCrystal Palacepreliminary3327412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- AFC BournemouthAston Villapreliminary3727361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- LiverpoolChelseapreliminary4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →