EFL Cup (Carabao Cup), round 4 · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK
AFC Bournemouth — Aston Villa
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 28 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: AFC Bournemouth 37%, Aston Villa 36%, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings AFC Bournemouth are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth — Aston Villa What is xG? | 1.4–1.4 | |
| AFC Bournemouth not to lose | 64% | |
| Aston Villa not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap AFC Bournemouth
- AFC Bournemouth goals
- Aston Villa goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Chelsea1:5
- 20.09Liverpool0:1
- 17.09away · Real Sociedad2:1
- 12.09Brentford2:2
- 08.09Lincoln City4:0
- 10.10Brentford2:2
- 19.09away · Tottenham Hotspur3:2
- 16.09away · Coventry City3:1
- 12.09Nottingham Forest1:2
- 08.09away · Club Brugge3:2
Head to head
- 07.02.2026AFC Bournemouth — Aston Villa1:1
- 09.11.2025Aston Villa — AFC Bournemouth4:0
- 10.05.2025AFC Bournemouth — Aston Villa0:1
- 26.10.2024Aston Villa — AFC Bournemouth1:1
- 21.04.2024Aston Villa — AFC Bournemouth3:1
EFL Cup on the same day
- Manchester CityBrighton & Hove Albionpreliminary6022171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- SunderlandBrentfordpreliminary2325522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- FulhamCrystal Palacepreliminary3327412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- LiverpoolChelseapreliminary4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →