J1 League (Japan), round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Gamba Osaka — Kyoto Sanga FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Gamba Osaka are clear favourites: 46% against 26% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Gamba Osaka are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Gamba Osaka — No. 18, 6 pts; Kyoto Sanga FC — No. 16, 8 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Gamba Osaka: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Gamba Osaka 2 wins, Kyoto Sanga FC 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Gamba Osaka — Kyoto Sanga FC What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Gamba Osaka not to lose | 74% | |
| Kyoto Sanga FC not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Gamba Osaka
- Gamba Osaka goals
- Kyoto Sanga FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Kashima Antlers0:2
- 20.09Vissel Kobe0:1
- 12.09FC Tokyo0:2
- 06.09away · JEF United Chiba0:2
- 02.09away · V-Varen Nagasaki2:2
- 10.10Machida Zelvia0:1
- 19.09away · Fagiano Okayama FC2:1
- 11.09Kashiwa Reysol2:3
- 06.09away · FC Tokyo0:2
- 02.09away · Yokohama F.Marinos1:1
Head to head
- 29.04.2026Kyoto Sanga FC — Gamba Osaka1:1
- 04.04.2026Gamba Osaka — Kyoto Sanga FC2:0
- 28.06.2025Kyoto Sanga FC — Gamba Osaka3:1
- 29.04.2025Gamba Osaka — Kyoto Sanga FC2:1
- 22.09.2024Kyoto Sanga FC — Gamba Osaka2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 18, Relegation | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
| 19, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
J1 League on the same day
- Sanfrecce HiroshimaShimizu S-Pulsepreliminary741791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Kashima AntlersKashiwa Reysolpreliminary362935XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
- Tokyo VerdyAvispa Fukuokapreliminary353233XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.1
- Vissel KobeMachida Zelviapreliminary4229291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →