Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt
Guayaquil City — Emelec
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:2Came true
In short
Final score 3:2: the model's most likely outcome, Guayaquil City to win (44%), came true.
Guayaquil City are slightly stronger: 44% against 27%, draw 29%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Last 4 meetings: Guayaquil City 1 win, Emelec 0, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Guayaquil City — Emelec What is xG? | 1.3–0.9 | |
| Guayaquil City not to lose | 73% | |
| Emelec not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 38% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 62% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Guayaquil City
- Guayaquil City goals
- Emelec goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 20.09Leones del Norte1:1
- 13.09Mushuc Runa3:1
- 08.09away · Orense3:4
- 03.09away · Deportivo Cuenca0:1
- 30.08LDU de Quito2:1
- 20.09Libertad (ECU)1:2
- 13.09away · CSD Macará0:1
- 08.09Manta1:0
- 04.09away · Libertad (ECU)1:1
- 31.08Leones del Norte2:1
Head to head
- 10.08.2026Guayaquil City — Emelec0:0
- 18.04.2026Emelec — Guayaquil City1:3
- 04.11.2023Guayaquil City — Emelec0:0
- 30.05.2023Emelec — Guayaquil City0:0
Next matches
- Libertad (ECU)Guayaquil City17 October · LigaPro Serie A5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- Leones del NorteEmelec18 October · LigaPro Serie A4729231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.0
LigaPro Serie A on the same day
- 5126231The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 4329281The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →