Scottish Premiership, round 11 · Wednesday, 28 October, 23:00 MSK

Heart of Midlothian — Rangers

Model prediction for 28 October

Heart of Midlothian29%

Draw28%

Rangers43%

Model estimate at 14:19 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Rangers are slightly stronger: 43% against 29%, draw 28%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 65%.

Why

By the strength ratings Rangers are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Facts

League table: Heart of Midlothian — No. 3, 16 pts; Rangers — No. 2, 19 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Rangers: 5 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Heart of Midlothian 3 wins, Rangers 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian — Rangers What is xG?		1.4–1.6
Heart of Midlothian not to lose		57%
Rangers not to lose		71%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		65%
Both teams to score: no		35%
Total over 2.5		62%
Total under 2.5		38%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Heart of Midlothian
Heart of Midlothian goals
Rangers goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Heart of Midlothian

10.10St. Mirren5:0
19.09away · Kilmarnock1:1
15.09away · Falkirk1:2
06.09Dundee FC2:1
03.09away · Hibernian3:1

Rangers

10.10Kilmarnock3:1
20.09away · Celtic1:0
09.09St. Mirren1:0
05.09Motherwell1:0
02.09away · Falkirk2:1

Head to head

04.05.2026Heart of Midlothian — Rangers2:1
15.02.2026Rangers — Heart of Midlothian4:2
21.12.2025Heart of Midlothian — Rangers2:1
13.09.2025Rangers — Heart of Midlothian0:2
16.02.2025Heart of Midlothian — Rangers1:3

Full record: 11 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Championship round	Celtic	8	7	0	1	16–4	+12	21
2, Championship round	Rangers	8	6	1	1	11–5	+6	19
3, Championship round	Heart of Midlothian	8	5	1	2	19–8	+11	16
4, Championship round	Dundee FC	8	4	1	3	11–8	+3	13

Season 2026/27

Full table

Scottish Premiership on the same day

22:45
AberdeenFalkirkpreliminary
462925
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
22:45
CelticDundee Unitedpreliminary
77149
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.6
22:45
Dundee FCKilmarnockpreliminary
462727
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
22:45
St. JohnstoneMotherwellpreliminary
402931
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
22:45
St. MirrenHibernianpreliminary
322939
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →