Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Estadio Banco Guayaquil
Independiente del Valle — Aucas
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2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Independiente del Valle to win (73%), came true.
Independiente del Valle are clear favourites: 73% against 10% for the opponent, draw 17%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Independiente del Valle are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Aucas: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Independiente del Valle 4 wins, Aucas 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Independiente del Valle — Aucas What is xG? | 2.4–0.9 | |
| Independiente del Valle not to lose | 90% | |
| Aucas not to lose | 27% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Independiente del Valle
- Independiente del Valle goals
- Aucas goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 18.09away · Flamengo1:1
- 14.09away · Libertad (ECU)3:2
- 11.09Flamengo0:2
- 06.09CSD Macará3:1
- 03.09away · Barcelona SC1:2
- 19.09CSD Macará1:2
- 12.09away · Manta0:0
- 07.09Barcelona SC1:1
- 03.09away · Universidad Católica (ECU)1:1
- 30.08Libertad (ECU)1:0
Head to head
- 17.07.2026Aucas — Independiente del Valle0:3
- 14.03.2026Independiente del Valle — Aucas2:2
- 19.07.2025Independiente del Valle — Aucas2:1
- 29.03.2025Aucas — Independiente del Valle1:2
- 01.09.2024Aucas — Independiente del Valle0:2
Next matches
- CSD MacaráIndependiente del Valle17 October · LigaPro Serie A2528472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
- AucasLDU de Quito18 October · LigaPro Serie A353134XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.3
LigaPro Serie A on the same day
- 4230281The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 73% will not happen in roughly 27 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →