Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Estadio Jocay

Manta — Técnico Universitario

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Model prediction and result

1:0Came true
Manta42%
Draw30%
Técnico Universitario28%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Manta to win (42%), came true.

Manta are slightly stronger: 42% against 28%, draw 30%.

2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 45%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Manta — Técnico Universitario What is xG?1.2–1.0
Manta not to lose72%
Técnico Universitario not to lose58%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes45%
Both teams to score: no55%
Total over 2.537%
Total under 2.563%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Manta
  • Manta goals
  • Técnico Universitario goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Manta

  • 21.09Orense2:1
  • 12.09Aucas0:0
  • 08.09away · Emelec0:1
  • 02.09away · CSD Macará3:4
  • 30.08Barcelona SC2:0

Técnico Universitario

  • 20.09Delfín1:1
  • 13.09away · Leones del Norte1:0
  • 05.09LDU de Quito1:3
  • 02.09away · Delfín0:1
  • 29.08Deportivo Cuenca3:1

Head to head

  • 26.07.2026Técnico Universitario — Manta1:0
  • 05.04.2026Manta — Técnico Universitario0:2
  • 29.11.2025Técnico Universitario — Manta2:3
  • 19.10.2025Manta — Técnico Universitario2:0
  • 03.08.2025Técnico Universitario — Manta3:1

Next matches

  • Deportivo CuencaTécnico Universitario16 October · LigaPro Serie A
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1
  • DelfínManta18 October · LigaPro Serie A
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.9

LigaPro Serie A on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →