Kazakhstan Premier League, round 18 · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK
Irtysh Pavlodar — FC Astana
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:1Came true
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, FC Astana to win (59%), came true.
FC Astana are clear favourites: 59% against 17% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Astana are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Irtysh Pavlodar — FC Astana What is xG? | 0.9–1.8 | |
| Irtysh Pavlodar not to lose | 41% | |
| FC Astana not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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- Handicap Irtysh Pavlodar
- Irtysh Pavlodar goals
- FC Astana goals
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Form
- 10.10FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk0:2
- 18.09away · FC Altai Oskemen2:1
- 13.09Okzhetpes Kokshetau2:1
- 05.09away · Zhetysu Taldykorgan0:1
- 30.08Aktobe2:1
- 10.10away · Tobol Kostanay1:2
- 17.09Kairat Almaty1:0
- 12.09away · Ordabasy Shymkent0:1
- 06.09FC Yelimay4:0
- 30.08away · Atyrau3:2
Head to head
- 14.06.2026FC Astana — Irtysh Pavlodar2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 27 | 18 | +32 | 60 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 27 | 15 | +17 | 51 |
| 4 | Aktobe | 27 | 13 | +9 | 45 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 26 | 5 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 27 | 6 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 27 | 4 | -14 | 24 |
Next matches
- Kairat AlmatyIrtysh Pavlodar18 October · Kazakhstan Premier League821361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- FC AstanaKaspiy Aktau18 October · Kazakhstan Premier League761581The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day
- AtyrauFC Yelimaylive3230392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →