Kazakhstan Premier League, round 28 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK
Irtysh Pavlodar — FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk
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0:2Missed
In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Irtysh Pavlodar to win (44%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 44% fails in about 56 matches out of 100 on average.
Irtysh Pavlodar are slightly stronger: 44% against 27%, draw 29%.
The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Irtysh Pavlodar — FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk What is xG? | 1.3–1.0 | |
| Irtysh Pavlodar not to lose | 73% | |
| FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 39% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 61% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Irtysh Pavlodar
- Irtysh Pavlodar goals
- FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 18.09away · FC Altai Oskemen2:1
- 13.09Okzhetpes Kokshetau2:1
- 05.09away · Zhetysu Taldykorgan0:1
- 30.08Aktobe2:1
- 16.08Tobol Kostanay0:2
- 18.09Kaisar Kyzylorda1:1
- 12.09away · Zhenis1:3
- 05.09Atyrau0:1
- 29.08away · Ordabasy Shymkent0:3
- 16.08FC Astana1:1
Head to head
- 20.03.2026FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk — Irtysh Pavlodar2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Kaspiy Aktau | 27 | 9 | -8 | 32 |
| 11 | FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk | 27 | 7 | -9 | 28 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 26 | 5 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 27 | 6 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 27 | 4 | -14 | 24 |
Next matches
- Irtysh PavlodarFC Astana14 October · Kazakhstan Premier League1724592The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
- Okzhetpes KokshetauFC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk17 October · Kazakhstan Premier League5126231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day
- 4427291The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
- 2828452The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 89831The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.4
- 5129211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.1.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →