J1 League (Japan), round 9 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Fukuda Denshi Arena
JEF United Chiba — V-Varen Nagasaki
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, V-Varen Nagasaki to win (37%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 37% fails in about 63 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: JEF United Chiba 35%, V-Varen Nagasaki 37%, draw 28%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: JEF United Chiba — V-Varen Nagasaki What is xG? | 1.4–1.4 | |
| JEF United Chiba not to lose | 63% | |
| V-Varen Nagasaki not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap JEF United Chiba
- JEF United Chiba goals
- V-Varen Nagasaki goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09away · Shimizu S-Pulse1:2
- 13.09away · Tokyo Verdy1:1
- 06.09Gamba Osaka2:0
- 02.09Fagiano Okayama FC1:2
- 29.08away · Kawasaki Frontale2:4
- 19.09Cerezo Osaka1:1
- 12.09Nagoya Grampus2:0
- 06.09away · Vissel Kobe1:3
- 02.09Gamba Osaka2:2
- 29.08FC Tokyo0:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 18, Relegation | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
| 19, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
| 20, Relegation | Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | -10 | 4 |
Next matches
- JEF United ChibaYokohama F.Marinos17 October · J1 League2827452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- Kashima AntlersV-Varen Nagasaki17 October · J1 League5924171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
J1 League on the same day
- 353036XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.4
- 1425612The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.2.3
- 4627271The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →