Kazakhstan Premier League, round 23 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Kairat Almaty — Irtysh Pavlodar
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Kairat Almaty are clear favourites: 82% against 6% for the opponent, draw 13%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 37%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Kairat Almaty are about 1.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Kairat Almaty — No. 2, 60 pts; Irtysh Pavlodar — No. 13, 26 pts. A gap of 34 pts.
- Days of rest before the match: Kairat Almaty 8, Irtysh Pavlodar 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kairat Almaty — Irtysh Pavlodar What is xG? | 2.4–0.5 | |
| Kairat Almaty not to lose | 94% | |
| Irtysh Pavlodar not to lose | 18% | |
| No draw | 87% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 37% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 63% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kairat Almaty
- Kairat Almaty goals
- Irtysh Pavlodar goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Zhetysu Taldykorgan1:0
- 17.09away · FC Astana0:1
- 13.09Tobol Kostanay1:4
- 09.09Zhenis3:0
- 05.09away · Kaspiy Aktau3:0
- 14.10FC Astana0:1
- 10.10FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk0:2
- 18.09away · FC Altai Oskemen2:1
- 13.09Okzhetpes Kokshetau2:1
- 05.09away · Zhetysu Taldykorgan0:1
Head to head
- 02.05.2026Irtysh Pavlodar — Kairat Almaty0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy Shymkent | 27 | 20 | +36 | 64 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 27 | 18 | +32 | 60 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 27 | 15 | +17 | 51 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 26 | 5 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 27 | 6 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 27 | 4 | -14 | 24 |
Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day
- 4130291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.2
- 6023171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- 781581The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 82% will not happen in roughly 18 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →