J1 League (Japan), round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Kashima Antlers — Kashiwa Reysol
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Kashima Antlers 36%, Kashiwa Reysol 35%, draw 29%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Kashima Antlers — No. 6, 16 pts; Kashiwa Reysol — No. 1, 21 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Kashiwa Reysol: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Kashima Antlers 4 wins, Kashiwa Reysol 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kashima Antlers — Kashiwa Reysol What is xG? | 1.3–1.3 | |
| Kashima Antlers not to lose | 65% | |
| Kashiwa Reysol not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kashima Antlers
- Kashima Antlers goals
- Kashiwa Reysol goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Gamba Osaka2:0
- 19.09away · Kawasaki Frontale3:3
- 11.09away · Vissel Kobe1:2
- 06.09Urawa Red Diamonds0:1
- 02.09away · Mito Hollyhock2:4
- 09.10Vissel Kobe4:2
- 20.09away · Machida Zelvia4:2
- 11.09away · Kyoto Sanga FC3:2
- 06.09Yokohama F.Marinos0:2
- 02.09away · Cerezo Osaka0:2
Head to head
- 24.04.2026Kashiwa Reysol — Kashima Antlers0:1
- 21.02.2026Kashima Antlers — Kashiwa Reysol2:0
- 20.07.2025Kashima Antlers — Kashiwa Reysol3:2
- 08.03.2025Kashiwa Reysol — Kashima Antlers1:3
- 21.09.2024Kashima Antlers — Kashiwa Reysol0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | +16 | 20 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F.Marinos | 9 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
J1 League on the same day
- Sanfrecce HiroshimaShimizu S-Pulsepreliminary741791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Tokyo VerdyAvispa Fukuokapreliminary353233XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.1
- Vissel KobeMachida Zelviapreliminary4229291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- Gamba OsakaKyoto Sanga FCpreliminary4627261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →