J1 League (Japan), round 10 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Kashiwa Reysol — Nagoya Grampus
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Kashiwa Reysol are clear favourites: 50% against 23% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Kashiwa Reysol are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kashiwa Reysol — Nagoya Grampus What is xG? | 1.7–1.1 | |
| Kashiwa Reysol not to lose | 77% | |
| Nagoya Grampus not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kashiwa Reysol
- Kashiwa Reysol goals
- Nagoya Grampus goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Vissel Kobe4:2
- 20.09away · Machida Zelvia4:2
- 11.09away · Kyoto Sanga FC3:2
- 06.09Yokohama F.Marinos0:2
- 02.09away · Cerezo Osaka0:2
- 11.10away · Kawasaki Frontale2:1
- 19.09away · FC Tokyo0:1
- 12.09away · V-Varen Nagasaki0:2
- 06.09Machida Zelvia1:3
- 02.09away · Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:3
Head to head
- 08.11.2025Kashiwa Reysol — Nagoya Grampus1:0
- 29.04.2025Nagoya Grampus — Kashiwa Reysol1:2
- 14.07.2024Nagoya Grampus — Kashiwa Reysol2:1
- 16.03.2024Kashiwa Reysol — Nagoya Grampus0:2
- 03.12.2023Nagoya Grampus — Kashiwa Reysol1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | +16 | 20 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
J1 League on the same day
- 3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 2927442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- 7218101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- 2228502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.2
- 4027331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- 5825171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 2928422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →