J1 League (Japan), round 10 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Cerezo Osaka — Kawasaki Frontale
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In short
Evenly matched: Cerezo Osaka 40%, Kawasaki Frontale 33%, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cerezo Osaka — Kawasaki Frontale What is xG? | 1.7–1.6 | |
| Cerezo Osaka not to lose | 67% | |
| Kawasaki Frontale not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Cerezo Osaka
- Cerezo Osaka goals
- Kawasaki Frontale goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 10.10Yokohama F.Marinos0:0
- 19.09away · V-Varen Nagasaki1:1
- 12.09away · Sanfrecce Hiroshima1:6
- 06.09Tokyo Verdy0:0
- 02.09Kashiwa Reysol2:0
- 11.10Nagoya Grampus1:2
- 19.09Kashima Antlers3:3
- 12.09away · Mito Hollyhock1:0
- 06.09Shimizu S-Pulse3:1
- 02.09away · Machida Zelvia1:2
Head to head
- 25.10.2025Cerezo Osaka — Kawasaki Frontale2:0
- 18.05.2025Kawasaki Frontale — Cerezo Osaka2:0
- 14.07.2024Kawasaki Frontale — Cerezo Osaka1:1
- 13.04.2024Cerezo Osaka — Kawasaki Frontale1:0
- 02.09.2023Cerezo Osaka — Kawasaki Frontale3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Yokohama F.Marinos | 9 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 9 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
J1 League on the same day
- 3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 2927442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- 7218101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- 2228502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.2
- 5825171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 2928422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.5
- 5026231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →