J1 League (Japan), round 10 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Kashiwa Reysol — Nagoya Grampus
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Kashiwa Reysol are clear favourites: 56% against 18% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Kashiwa Reysol are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Kashiwa Reysol — No. 1, 21 pts; Nagoya Grampus — No. 15, 9 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
- Kashiwa Reysol: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Kashiwa Reysol 2 wins, Nagoya Grampus 2, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Kashiwa Reysol 8, Nagoya Grampus 6.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kashiwa Reysol — Nagoya Grampus What is xG? | 1.8–1.0 | |
| Kashiwa Reysol not to lose | 82% | |
| Nagoya Grampus not to lose | 44% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kashiwa Reysol
- Kashiwa Reysol goals
- Nagoya Grampus goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 09.10Vissel Kobe4:2
- 20.09away · Machida Zelvia4:2
- 11.09away · Kyoto Sanga FC3:2
- 06.09Yokohama F.Marinos0:2
- 02.09away · Cerezo Osaka0:2
- 11.10away · Kawasaki Frontale2:1
- 19.09away · FC Tokyo0:1
- 12.09away · V-Varen Nagasaki0:2
- 06.09Machida Zelvia1:3
- 02.09away · Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:3
Head to head
- 08.11.2025Kashiwa Reysol — Nagoya Grampus1:0
- 29.04.2025Nagoya Grampus — Kashiwa Reysol1:2
- 14.07.2024Nagoya Grampus — Kashiwa Reysol2:1
- 16.03.2024Kashiwa Reysol — Nagoya Grampus0:2
- 03.12.2023Nagoya Grampus — Kashiwa Reysol1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | +16 | 20 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
J1 League on the same day
- 3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 2827452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- 751781The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 1927542The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
- 3627372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- 5924171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- 2928422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →