J1 League (Japan), round 11 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
Kyoto Sanga FC — Kashima Antlers
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Kashima Antlers are slightly stronger: 42% against 31%, draw 27%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kyoto Sanga FC — Kashima Antlers What is xG? | 1.2–1.4 | |
| Kyoto Sanga FC not to lose | 58% | |
| Kashima Antlers not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Kyoto Sanga FC
- Kyoto Sanga FC goals
- Kashima Antlers goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 10.10Machida Zelvia0:1
- 19.09away · Fagiano Okayama FC2:1
- 11.09Kashiwa Reysol2:3
- 06.09away · FC Tokyo0:2
- 02.09away · Yokohama F.Marinos1:1
- 09.10Gamba Osaka2:0
- 19.09away · Kawasaki Frontale3:3
- 11.09away · Vissel Kobe1:2
- 06.09Urawa Red Diamonds0:1
- 02.09away · Mito Hollyhock2:4
Head to head
- 25.10.2025Kyoto Sanga FC — Kashima Antlers1:1
- 06.04.2025Kashima Antlers — Kyoto Sanga FC3:4
- 17.11.2024Kyoto Sanga FC — Kashima Antlers0:0
- 13.04.2024Kashima Antlers — Kyoto Sanga FC1:0
- 01.07.2023Kashima Antlers — Kyoto Sanga FC0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F.Marinos | 9 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
J1 League on the same day
- Avispa FukuokaGamba Osakapreliminary372934XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.4
- FC TokyoKashiwa Reysolpreliminary4527281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- Kawasaki FrontaleVissel Kobepreliminary3128412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osakapreliminary4227321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Fagiano Okayama FCMito Hollyhockpreliminary5128211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- Shimizu S-PulseMachida Zelviapreliminary2728452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
- V-Varen NagasakiSanfrecce Hiroshimapreliminary1422642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- Yokohama F.MarinosTokyo Verdypreliminary5129211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →