Serie A, round 6 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare
Lecce — Bologna
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:2Came true
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Bologna to win (48%), came true.
Bologna are clear favourites: 48% against 21% for the opponent, draw 31%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bologna are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Bologna: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Lecce 0 wins, Bologna 3, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lecce — Bologna What is xG? | 0.9–1.4 | |
| Lecce not to lose | 52% | |
| Bologna not to lose | 79% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 39% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 61% |
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- Handicap Lecce
- Lecce goals
- Bologna goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
Head to head
- 12.04.2026Bologna — Lecce2:0
- 28.09.2025Lecce — Bologna2:2
- 09.02.2025Lecce — Bologna0:0
- 02.11.2024Bologna — Lecce1:0
- 11.02.2024Bologna — Lecce4:0
Table
Next matches
- BolognaInter17 October · Serie A1424622The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- UdineseLecce18 October · Serie A5029211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
Serie A on the same day
- 363133XThe most likely outcome came true: X0:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:0, exactly right.2.5
- 6126131The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.5
- 2128512The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.3.0
- 1729542The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →