Paraguayan Primera Division · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Estadio Tigo La Huerta
Libertad — Guaraní
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2:2Missed
In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Libertad to win (42%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 42% fails in about 58 matches out of 100 on average.
Libertad are slightly stronger: 42% against 27%, draw 31%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Guaraní: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Libertad 1 win, Guaraní 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Libertad — Guaraní What is xG? | 1.3–1.0 | |
| Libertad not to lose | 73% | |
| Guaraní not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 40% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 60% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Libertad
- Libertad goals
- Guaraní goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 05.10away · Recoleta2:1
- 29.09Olimpia0:1
- 19.09Sportivo Ameliano1:1
- 12.09away · 2 de Mayo2:0
- 06.09Rubio Ñú4:2
- 03.10Sportivo San Lorenzo1:1
- 25.09away · Luqueño1:0
- 18.09away · Sportivo Trinidense1:0
- 12.09Cerro Porteño1:1
- 07.09Recoleta2:0
Head to head
- 03.08.2026Guaraní — Libertad2:1
- 06.04.2026Guaraní — Libertad1:0
- 09.02.2026Libertad — Guaraní3:3
- 10.11.2025Guaraní — Libertad1:2
- 26.08.2025Libertad — Guaraní0:4
Next matches
- GuaraníNacional (PAR)17 October · Paraguayan Primera373231XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.1
- Sportivo TrinidenseLibertad19 October · Paraguayan Primera4030311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
Paraguayan Primera on the same day
- 363232XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X1:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:0.2.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →