UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
Lille — Galatasaray
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lille are slightly stronger: 46% against 28%, draw 26%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lille — Galatasaray What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Lille not to lose | 72% | |
| Galatasaray not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Lille
- Lille goals
- Galatasaray goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 13.10Barcelona1:4
- 09.10Kasımpaşa3:1
- 19.09away · Trabzonspor0:4
- 13.09Kocaelispor1:0
- 09.09away · Sporting CP1:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Napoli | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
| 32 | Lille | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Galatasaray | 2 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
Champions League on the same day
- ComoManchester Unitedpreliminary5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Bayern MünchenArsenalpreliminary6819131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.1
- Real MadridRB Leipzigpreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- InterShakhtar Donetskpreliminary6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Sporting CPLASKpreliminary741791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- Aston VillaVikingpreliminary5624211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Club BruggeLenspreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.9
- Real BetisFeyenoordpreliminary4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →