English Premier League, round 6 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Anfield
Liverpool — Manchester City
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:3Came true
In short
Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Manchester City to win (39%), came true.
Evenly matched: Liverpool 33%, Manchester City 39%, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Liverpool: unbeaten in 5; Manchester City: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Liverpool 2 wins, Manchester City 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Liverpool — Manchester City What is xG? | 1.6–1.6 | |
| Liverpool not to lose | 61% | |
| Manchester City not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Liverpool
- Liverpool goals
- Manchester City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 20.09away · AFC Bournemouth1:0
- 15.09Tottenham Hotspur3:1
- 12.09Fulham0:0
- 09.09Atlético Madrid2:1
- 04.09away · Ipswich Town2:0
- 20.09Sunderland5:3
- 17.09Norwich City5:0
- 13.09away · Manchester United1:0
- 08.09away · FC Porto2:0
- 05.09Coventry City1:0
Head to head
- 04.04.2026Manchester City — Liverpool4:0
- 08.02.2026Liverpool — Manchester City1:2
- 09.11.2025Manchester City — Liverpool3:0
- 23.02.2025Manchester City — Liverpool0:2
- 01.12.2024Liverpool — Manchester City2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 2, Champions League | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | +5 | 15 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
Next matches
- LASKLiverpool14 October · Champions League · live1521642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
- Manchester CityParis Saint-Germain14 October · Champions League5025251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
Premier League on the same day
- 4229291The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 283240XThe most likely outcome came true: X2:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:0.2.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →