English Premier League, round 6 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace — Nottingham Forest
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Crystal Palace to win (42%), came true.
Crystal Palace are slightly stronger: 42% against 29%, draw 29%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Crystal Palace are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Crystal Palace — Nottingham Forest What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| Crystal Palace not to lose | 71% | |
| Nottingham Forest not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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- Crystal Palace goals
- Nottingham Forest goals
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Form
- 20.09away · Leeds United0:0
- 17.09Lech Poznań4:0
- 12.09Ipswich Town2:3
- 08.09Middlesbrough3:0
- 05.09away · Fulham3:2
- 19.09Coventry City0:1
- 12.09away · Aston Villa2:1
- 05.09Tottenham Hotspur0:0
- 29.08away · Liverpool2:2
- 25.08Leeds United0:2
Head to head
- 01.02.2026Nottingham Forest — Crystal Palace1:1
- 24.08.2025Crystal Palace — Nottingham Forest1:1
- 05.05.2025Crystal Palace — Nottingham Forest1:1
- 21.10.2024Nottingham Forest — Crystal Palace1:0
- 30.03.2024Nottingham Forest — Crystal Palace1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newcastle United | 6 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
Next matches
- LyonCrystal Palace15 October · Europa League4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Nottingham ForestArsenal18 October · Premier League1525602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
Premier League on the same day
- 283240XThe most likely outcome came true: X2:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:0.2.3
- 3327392The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →