UEFA Conference League, round 1 · Thursday, 15 October, MSK · AIL Arena
Lugano — FK Crvena Zvezda
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
Lugano are slightly stronger: 46% against 28%, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lugano are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Lugano: 3 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lugano — FK Crvena Zvezda What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Lugano not to lose | 72% | |
| FK Crvena Zvezda not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lugano
- Lugano goals
- FK Crvena Zvezda goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 26.02Lille0:2
- 19.02away · Lille1:0
- 29.01Celta Vigo1:1
- 22.01away · Malmö FF1:0
- 11.12away · Sturm Graz1:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Conference League on the same day
- 5324231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- 771581The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.4
- 1319682The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.1
- 3126432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- 2024562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- 2525502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.8
- 1521642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.0
- 4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →