UEFA Nations League, round 4, League C, group 4 · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK · Stade de Luxembourg
Luxembourg — Bulgaria
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0:2Missed
In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (31%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 31% fails in about 69 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Luxembourg 34%, Bulgaria 36%, draw 31%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Luxembourg 1422, Bulgaria 1411 — the teams are almost level on rating.
- Luxembourg: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Luxembourg — Bulgaria What is xG? | 1.1–1.1 | |
| Luxembourg not to lose | 64% | |
| Bulgaria not to lose | 66% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 36% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 64% |
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Form
- 03.10away · Estonia0:1
- 29.09Iceland0:3
- 26.09away · Bulgaria2:1
- 06.06away · Albania1:0
- 03.06Italy0:1
- 03.10away · Iceland0:3
- 29.09Estonia0:0
- 26.09Luxembourg1:2
- 05.06away · Moldova2:2
- 01.06Montenegro0:1
Head to head
- 26.09.2026Bulgaria — Luxembourg1:2
- 15.11.2024Luxembourg — Bulgaria0:1
- 12.10.2024Bulgaria — Luxembourg0:0
- 20.11.2022Luxembourg — Bulgaria0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Iceland | 4 | 2 | +6 | 8 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Estonia | 4 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | -5 | 3 |
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 383131XThe most likely outcome came true: X2:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.1
- 918742The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:3.3.2
- 831241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.3
- 4530251The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- 841241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.3
- 95401The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.4
- 2129502The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.3
- 920712The most likely outcome came true: 20:4Final score 0:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →