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UEFA Nations League, round 4, League C, group 1 · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK · Arena Kombëtare

Albania — San Marino

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Albania95%
Draw4%
San Marino0%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Albania to win (95%), came true.

Albania are clear favourites: 95% against 0% for the opponent, draw 4%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 22%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Albania 1612, San Marino 820 — Albania clearly rated higher.
  • Albania: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.

Facts

  • San Marino: 5 defeats in a row.
  • Last 3 meetings: Albania 3 wins, San Marino 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Albania — San Marino What is xG?3.1–0.2
Albania not to lose100%
San Marino not to lose5%
No draw96%
Both teams to score: yes22%
Both teams to score: no78%
Total over 2.567%
Total under 2.533%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Albania
  • Albania goals
  • San Marino goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Albania

  • 03.10away · Finland1:2
  • 29.09away · San Marino3:0
  • 26.09Belarus2:0
  • 06.06Luxembourg0:1
  • 03.06Israel0:1

San Marino

  • 03.10away · Belarus0:4
  • 29.09Albania0:3
  • 26.09Finland0:7
  • 09.06away · Azerbaijan1:2
  • 05.06Bangladesh1:2

Head to head

  • 29.09.2026San Marino — Albania0:3
  • 08.09.2021Albania — San Marino5:0
  • 31.03.2021San Marino — Albania0:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveAlbania43018–3+59
2, Promotion play-offsFinland42119–2+77
3Belarus42115–2+37
4San Marino40041–16-150

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • KazakhstanFaroe Islands
    XThe most likely outcome came true: XFinal score 2:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.1
  • CroatiaSpain
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:3.3.2
  • EnglandCzechia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.3
  • ScotlandSlovenia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
  • SwitzerlandNorth Macedonia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.3
  • BelarusFinland
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.3
  • MoldovaSlovakia
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
  • EstoniaIceland
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 95% will not happen in roughly 5 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →