UEFA Nations League, round 4, League C, group 3 · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK · Astana Arena
Kazakhstan — Faroe Islands
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2:2Came true
In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (31%), came true.
Evenly matched: Kazakhstan 38%, Faroe Islands 31%, draw 31%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 43%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Kazakhstan 1393, Faroe Islands 1392 — the teams are almost level on rating.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kazakhstan — Faroe Islands What is xG? | 1.1–1.0 | |
| Kazakhstan not to lose | 69% | |
| Faroe Islands not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 43% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 57% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 36% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 64% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kazakhstan
- Kazakhstan goals
- Faroe Islands goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 02.10Moldova1:2
- 29.09away · Slovakia1:2
- 26.09away · Faroe Islands1:1
- 09.06away · Hungary1:3
- 06.06away · Armenia1:1
- 02.10Slovakia1:1
- 29.09away · Moldova1:1
- 26.09Kazakhstan1:1
- 09.06away · Latvia1:0
- 06.06away · Estonia0:1
Head to head
- 26.09.2026Faroe Islands — Kazakhstan1:1
- 18.11.2025Faroe Islands — Kazakhstan1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Slovakia | 4 | 3 | +7 | 10 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Moldova | 4 | 1 | -5 | 4 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | -2 | 2 |
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 918742The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:3.3.2
- 831241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.3
- 4530251The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- 841241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.3
- 95401The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.4
- 2129502The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.3
- 920712The most likely outcome came true: 20:4Final score 0:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
- 1423632The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →