UEFA Nations League, round 4, League C, group 3 · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK · Stadionul Zimbru
Moldova — Slovakia
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0:4Came true
In short
Final score 0:4: the model's most likely outcome, Slovakia to win (71%), came true.
Slovakia are clear favourites: 71% against 9% for the opponent, draw 20%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Moldova 1301, Slovakia 1665 — Slovakia clearly rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Moldova — Slovakia What is xG? | 0.7–2.0 | |
| Moldova not to lose | 29% | |
| Slovakia not to lose | 91% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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- Handicap Moldova
- Moldova goals
- Slovakia goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 02.10away · Kazakhstan2:1
- 29.09Faroe Islands1:1
- 26.09away · Slovakia0:2
- 09.06away · Armenia1:1
- 05.06Bulgaria2:2
- 02.10away · Faroe Islands1:1
- 29.09Kazakhstan2:1
- 26.09Moldova2:0
- 05.06Montenegro2:2
- 01.06Malta2:1
Head to head
- 26.09.2026Slovakia — Moldova2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Slovakia | 4 | 3 | +7 | 10 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Moldova | 4 | 1 | -5 | 4 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | -2 | 2 |
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 383131XThe most likely outcome came true: X2:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.1
- 918742The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:3.3.2
- 831241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.3
- 4530251The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- 841241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.3
- 95401The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.4
- 2129502The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.3
- 1423632The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 71% will not happen in roughly 29 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →