UEFA Nations League, round 2, League C, group 4 · Tuesday, 29 September, MSK · Stade de Luxembourg
Luxembourg — Iceland
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:3Came true
In short
Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Iceland to win (47%), came true.
Iceland are clear favourites: 47% against 25% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Luxembourg 1476, Iceland 1554 — Iceland rated higher.
- Luxembourg: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Luxembourg — Iceland What is xG? | 1.0–1.5 | |
| Luxembourg not to lose | 53% | |
| Iceland not to lose | 75% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
91 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Luxembourg
- Luxembourg goals
- Iceland goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 26.09away · Bulgaria2:1
- 06.06away · Albania1:0
- 03.06Italy0:1
- 31.03Malta3:0
- 26.03away · Malta2:0
- 26.09Estonia1:1
- 10.06away · Argentina0:3
- 31.05away · Japan0:1
- 31.03away · Haiti1:1
- 28.03away · Canada2:2
Head to head
- 13.10.2023Iceland — Luxembourg1:1
- 08.09.2023Luxembourg — Iceland3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Iceland | 4 | 2 | +6 | 8 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Estonia | 4 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | -5 | 3 |
Next matches
- EstoniaLuxembourg3 October · UEFA Nations League3231372The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
- IcelandBulgaria3 October · UEFA Nations League6223151The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 5725191The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 2830422The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 919722The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.3.0
- 771671The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 1925562The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 5428181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 17932The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:3, exactly right.3.3
- 7021101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →