EFL Championship, round 13 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Millwall — Derby County
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Millwall are clear favourites: 52% against 21% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Millwall are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Millwall — Derby County What is xG? | 1.6–1.0 | |
| Millwall not to lose | 79% | |
| Derby County not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Millwall
- Millwall goals
- Derby County goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 13.10Swansea City0:1
- 10.10away · Preston North End1:0
- 19.09West Ham United2:2
- 15.09away · Middlesbrough2:2
- 12.09away · Blackburn Rovers1:3
- 10.10Wrexham1:1
- 19.09away · Burnley1:1
- 12.09Birmingham City1:2
- 09.09West Bromwich Albion0:1
- 05.09away · West Ham United0:3
Head to head
- 10.03.2026Millwall — Derby County1:0
- 10.12.2025Derby County — Millwall1:1
- 22.02.2025Derby County — Millwall0:1
- 19.10.2024Millwall — Derby County1:1
- 23.02.2022Derby County — Millwall1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 22, Relegation | Watford | 10 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 9 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 24, Relegation | Preston North End | 10 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
Championship on the same day
- Lincoln CityBirmingham Citypreliminary373033XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.4
- Norwich CityWatfordpreliminary5625191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Stoke CityPreston North Endpreliminary4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Bolton WanderersBristol Citypreliminary4228301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- BurnleyPortsmouthpreliminary5028221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- MiddlesbroughCharlton Athleticpreliminary7019111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- SouthamptonQueens Park Rangerspreliminary5824181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Swansea CityBlackburn Roverspreliminary5228201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →