EFL Championship, round 13 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Burnley — Portsmouth
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Burnley are clear favourites: 50% against 22% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Burnley are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Burnley — Portsmouth What is xG? | 1.5–1.0 | |
| Burnley not to lose | 78% | |
| Portsmouth not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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- Handicap Burnley
- Burnley goals
- Portsmouth goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 13.10Charlton Athletic2:2
- 10.10away · Watford4:0
- 19.09Derby County1:1
- 12.09away · Swansea City1:3
- 08.09away · Wrexham1:1
- 11.10away · Southampton0:1
- 19.09Blackburn Rovers2:2
- 12.09away · Charlton Athletic0:0
- 05.09Cardiff City2:0
- 01.09Derby County0:2
Head to head
- 01.02.2025Portsmouth — Burnley0:0
- 21.09.2024Burnley — Portsmouth2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Norwich City | 9 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | -4 | 8 |
| 22, Relegation | Watford | 10 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
Championship on the same day
- Lincoln CityBirmingham Citypreliminary373033XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.4
- Norwich CityWatfordpreliminary5625191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Stoke CityPreston North Endpreliminary4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Bolton WanderersBristol Citypreliminary4228301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- MiddlesbroughCharlton Athleticpreliminary7019111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- MillwallDerby Countypreliminary5227211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- SouthamptonQueens Park Rangerspreliminary5824181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Swansea CityBlackburn Roverspreliminary5228201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →