J1 League (Japan), round 11 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
Nagoya Grampus — Cerezo Osaka
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Nagoya Grampus are slightly stronger: 42% against 32%, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Nagoya Grampus — Cerezo Osaka What is xG? | 1.6–1.4 | |
| Nagoya Grampus not to lose | 68% | |
| Cerezo Osaka not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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Form
- 11.10away · Kawasaki Frontale2:1
- 19.09away · FC Tokyo0:1
- 12.09away · V-Varen Nagasaki0:2
- 06.09Machida Zelvia1:3
- 02.09away · Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:3
- 10.10Yokohama F.Marinos0:0
- 19.09away · V-Varen Nagasaki1:1
- 12.09away · Sanfrecce Hiroshima1:6
- 06.09Tokyo Verdy0:0
- 02.09Kashiwa Reysol2:0
Head to head
- 17.05.2026Cerezo Osaka — Nagoya Grampus6:1
- 04.04.2026Nagoya Grampus — Cerezo Osaka3:0
- 04.10.2025Nagoya Grampus — Cerezo Osaka2:1
- 08.03.2025Cerezo Osaka — Nagoya Grampus1:1
- 30.06.2024Cerezo Osaka — Nagoya Grampus2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 9 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
J1 League on the same day
- Avispa FukuokaGamba Osakapreliminary372934XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.4
- FC TokyoKashiwa Reysolpreliminary4527281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- Kawasaki FrontaleVissel Kobepreliminary3128412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- Kyoto Sanga FCKashima Antlerspreliminary3127422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
- Fagiano Okayama FCMito Hollyhockpreliminary5128211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- Shimizu S-PulseMachida Zelviapreliminary2728452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
- V-Varen NagasakiSanfrecce Hiroshimapreliminary1422642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- Yokohama F.MarinosTokyo Verdypreliminary5129211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →