Liga MX (Mexico), round 12 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Necaxa — Atlas
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Necaxa are slightly stronger: 42% against 31%, draw 27%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Necaxa are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Necaxa — No. 17, 9 pts; Atlas — No. 6, 18 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
- Necaxa: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Necaxa 2 wins, Atlas 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Necaxa — Atlas What is xG? | 1.6–1.3 | |
| Necaxa not to lose | 69% | |
| Atlas not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Necaxa
- Necaxa goals
- Atlas goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10away · Pachuca3:3
- 28.09CF América2:4
- 20.09away · Atlético de San Luis1:3
- 12.09Puebla0:1
- 06.09away · Tigres1:1
Head to head
- 18.01.2026Necaxa — Atlas0:1
- 28.09.2025Atlas — Necaxa3:2
- 19.02.2025Atlas — Necaxa0:4
- 11.11.2024Necaxa — Atlas0:0
- 15.01.2024Necaxa — Atlas2:1
Table
Liga MX on the same day
- 4128311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- 5526191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →