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UEFA Nations League, round 4, League A, group 2 · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Philips Stadion

Netherlands — Serbia

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Netherlands72%
Draw18%
Serbia10%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Netherlands to win (72%), came true.

Netherlands are clear favourites: 72% against 10% for the opponent, draw 18%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 54%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Netherlands 1970, Serbia 1687 — Netherlands clearly rated higher.
  • Netherlands: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Netherlands — Serbia What is xG?2.5–0.9
Netherlands not to lose90%
Serbia not to lose28%
No draw82%
Both teams to score: yes54%
Both teams to score: no46%
Total over 2.565%
Total under 2.535%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Netherlands
  • Netherlands goals
  • Serbia goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Netherlands

  • 01.10away · Greece2:2
  • 27.09away · Serbia2:1
  • 24.09Germany1:1
  • 30.06Morocco1:1
  • 26.06away · Tunisia3:1

Serbia

  • 01.10away · Germany0:2
  • 27.09Netherlands1:2
  • 24.09Greece1:2
  • 05.06away · Mexico1:5
  • 31.05away · Cape Verde0:3

Head to head

  • 27.09.2026Serbia — Netherlands1:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Quarter-finalsNetherlands42207–5+28
2, Quarter-finalsGreece42205–3+28
3Germany41213–2+15
4, Relegation play-offSerbia40043–8-50

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • AzerbaijanLithuania
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
  • KosovoAustria
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
  • MaltaAndorra
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.0
  • GreeceGermany
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
  • PortugalNorway
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
  • WalesDenmark
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
  • IrelandIsrael
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 72% will not happen in roughly 28 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →