UEFA Nations League, round 4, League A, group 2 · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Stadio Toumbas
Greece — Germany
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In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Germany to win (51%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.
Germany are clear favourites: 51% against 24% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Greece 1805, Germany 1894 — Germany rated higher.
- Greece: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Greece — Germany What is xG? | 1.2–1.8 | |
| Greece not to lose | 49% | |
| Germany not to lose | 76% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Greece
- Greece goals
- Germany goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 01.10Netherlands2:2
- 27.09away · Germany1:0
- 24.09away · Serbia2:1
- 07.06Italy0:1
- 04.06away · Sweden2:2
Head to head
- 27.09.2026Germany — Greece0:1
- 07.06.2024Germany — Greece2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Quarter-finals | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 2, Quarter-finals | Greece | 4 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 4, Relegation play-off | Serbia | 4 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 4230281The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
- 2326512The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 5829131The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.0
- 7218101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
- 5722201The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
- 2027532The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
- 3929321The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →