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UEFA Nations League, round 4, League B, group 3 · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · TSC Arena

Ireland — Israel

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Model prediction and result

1:1Missed
Ireland39%
Draw29%
Israel32%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Ireland to win (39%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 39% fails in about 61 matches out of 100 on average.

Ireland are slightly stronger: 39% against 32%, draw 29%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Ireland 1717, Israel 1613 — Ireland rated higher.
  • Ireland: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ireland — Israel What is xG?1.4–1.2
Ireland not to lose68%
Israel not to lose61%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes55%
Both teams to score: no45%
Total over 2.549%
Total under 2.551%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Ireland
  • Ireland goals
  • Israel goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Ireland

  • 01.10Austria2:2
  • 27.09away · Israel3:0
  • 24.09away · Kosovo0:1
  • 06.06away · Canada1:1
  • 28.05Qatar1:0

Israel

  • 01.10Kosovo0:0
  • 27.09Ireland0:3
  • 24.09away · Austria1:3
  • 03.06away · Albania1:0
  • 26.03away · Georgia2:2

Head to head

  • 27.09.2026Israel — Ireland0:3

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveAustria42209–5+48
2, Promotion play-offsIreland41216–4+25
3Kosovo41213–4-15
4, Relegation play-offIsrael40222–7-52

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • AzerbaijanLithuania
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
  • KosovoAustria
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
  • MaltaAndorra
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.0
  • GreeceGermany
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
  • NetherlandsSerbia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
  • PortugalNorway
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
  • WalesDenmark
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →