Major League Soccer (MLS), round 32 · Thursday, 29 October, MSK
New York City FC — Atlanta United
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 29 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
New York City FC are clear favourites: 54% against 20% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings New York City FC are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: New York City FC — Atlanta United What is xG? | 1.8–1.1 | |
| New York City FC not to lose | 80% | |
| Atlanta United not to lose | 46% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap New York City FC
- New York City FC goals
- Atlanta United goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Chicago Fire FC1:2
- 27.09away · Atlanta United2:2
- 19.09Red Bull New York0:1
- 13.09away · Real Salt Lake2:0
- 10.09New England Revolution1:2
- 11.10FC Cincinnati1:3
- 27.09New York City FC2:2
- 20.09away · Portland Timbers1:0
- 13.09away · DC United0:0
- 10.09Orlando City2:3
Head to head
- 27.09.2026Atlanta United — New York City FC2:2
- 13.06.2025New York City FC — Atlanta United4:0
- 30.03.2025Atlanta United — New York City FC4:3
- 18.07.2024Atlanta United — New York City FC2:2
- 07.04.2024New York City FC — Atlanta United1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | Red Bull New York | 28 | 10 | -14 | 36 |
| 19 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | +4 | 33 |
| 20 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | -3 | 33 |
| 27 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | -5 | 29 |
| 28 | Atlanta United | 28 | 7 | -15 | 27 |
| 29 | CF Montréal | 28 | 6 | -21 | 24 |
MLS on the same day
- Charlotte FCCF Montréalpreliminary5525201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- Inter Miami CFFC Cincinnatipreliminary5921201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:24.4
- New England RevolutionRed Bull New Yorkpreliminary5025241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.4
- Toronto FCDC Unitedpreliminary4030301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- Austin FCReal Salt Lakepreliminary3229382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- Chicago Fire FCOrlando Citypreliminary5523221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.8
- FC DallasColumbus Crewpreliminary4130291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- Minnesota UnitedSporting Kansas Citypreliminary6420161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →