Major League Soccer (MLS), round 33 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
New York City FC — CF Montréal
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
New York City FC are clear favourites: 53% against 21% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings New York City FC are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: New York City FC — No. 19, 33 pts; CF Montréal — No. 29, 24 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: New York City FC 1 win, CF Montréal 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: New York City FC — CF Montréal What is xG? | 1.9–1.1 | |
| New York City FC not to lose | 79% | |
| CF Montréal not to lose | 47% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap New York City FC
- New York City FC goals
- CF Montréal goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Chicago Fire FC1:2
- 27.09away · Atlanta United2:2
- 19.09Red Bull New York0:1
- 13.09away · Real Salt Lake2:0
- 10.09New England Revolution1:2
- 10.10away · Toronto FC1:2
- 27.09FC Cincinnati3:1
- 20.09Columbus Crew0:2
- 13.09away · Colorado Rapids0:1
- 10.09Charlotte FC1:2
Head to head
- 25.04.2026CF Montréal — New York City FC1:0
- 29.06.2025CF Montréal — New York City FC1:0
- 11.05.2025New York City FC — CF Montréal0:1
- 20.10.2024CF Montréal — New York City FC2:0
- 04.07.2024New York City FC — CF Montréal2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | Red Bull New York | 28 | 10 | -14 | 36 |
| 19 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | +4 | 33 |
| 20 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | -3 | 33 |
| 28 | Atlanta United | 28 | 7 | -15 | 27 |
| 29 | CF Montréal | 28 | 6 | -21 | 24 |
| 30 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | -33 | 22 |
MLS on the same day
- Charlotte FCOrlando Citypreliminary5125251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.7
- FC CincinnatiPhiladelphia Unionpreliminary3026442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.6
- Columbus CrewDC Unitedpreliminary5425201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Sporting Kansas CityFC Dallaspreliminary3227412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.1
- St. Louis CitySan Diego FCpreliminary5425201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →