EFL Championship, round 10 · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK · Carrow Road
Norwich City — Southampton
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 14 October
In short
Southampton are slightly stronger: 42% against 31%, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Southampton are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Southampton: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Norwich City — Southampton What is xG? | 1.5–1.7 | |
| Norwich City not to lose | 58% | |
| Southampton not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Norwich City
- Norwich City goals
- Southampton goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Swansea City1:2
- 20.09Bolton Wanderers3:4
- 17.09away · Manchester City0:5
- 12.09away · Middlesbrough3:4
- 09.09Birmingham City2:1
- 11.10Portsmouth1:0
- 19.09away · Wrexham1:2
- 12.09Bristol City4:1
- 08.09Swansea City3:1
- 05.09away · Lincoln City1:1
Head to head
- 18.03.2026Southampton — Norwich City1:0
- 13.12.2025Norwich City — Southampton2:1
- 26.08.2025Norwich City — Southampton0:3
- 01.01.2024Norwich City — Southampton1:1
- 12.08.2023Southampton — Norwich City4:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | +6 | 21 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Southampton | 9 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Birmingham City | 10 | 4 | +6 | 17 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 10 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 9 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
Championship on the same day
- 3829331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- 4529261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- 3327402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →