English Premier League, round 7 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Nottingham Forest — Arsenal
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Arsenal are clear favourites: 60% against 15% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects few goals: 2.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Arsenal are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Nottingham Forest — Arsenal What is xG? | 0.8–1.6 | |
| Nottingham Forest not to lose | 40% | |
| Arsenal not to lose | 85% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest goals
- Arsenal goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Crystal Palace1:3
- 19.09Coventry City0:1
- 12.09away · Aston Villa2:1
- 05.09Tottenham Hotspur0:0
- 29.08away · Liverpool2:2
- 10.10Leeds United2:1
- 19.09away · Brighton & Hove Albion0:3
- 15.09away · Ipswich Town4:2
- 12.09away · Sunderland2:0
- 09.09away · Napoli1:0
Head to head
- 17.01.2026Nottingham Forest — Arsenal0:0
- 13.09.2025Arsenal — Nottingham Forest3:0
- 26.02.2025Nottingham Forest — Arsenal0:0
- 23.11.2024Arsenal — Nottingham Forest3:0
- 30.01.2024Nottingham Forest — Arsenal1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 2, Champions League | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | +5 | 15 |
| 3, Champions League | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 4 | +13 | 13 |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
Premier League on the same day
- 5625181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 5028211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- 323038XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 2:23.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →