English Premier League, round 7 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
AFC Bournemouth — Sunderland
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
AFC Bournemouth are clear favourites: 56% against 18% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings AFC Bournemouth are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth — Sunderland What is xG? | 1.8–1.0 | |
| AFC Bournemouth not to lose | 82% | |
| Sunderland not to lose | 44% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap AFC Bournemouth
- AFC Bournemouth goals
- Sunderland goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Chelsea1:5
- 20.09Liverpool0:1
- 17.09away · Real Sociedad2:1
- 12.09Brentford2:2
- 08.09Lincoln City4:0
- 10.10Brighton & Hove Albion0:2
- 20.09away · Manchester City3:5
- 16.09AZ Alkmaar1:0
- 12.09Arsenal0:2
- 08.09Hull City1:0
Head to head
- 28.02.2026AFC Bournemouth — Sunderland1:1
- 29.11.2025Sunderland — AFC Bournemouth3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | -6 | 4 |
| 18, Relegation | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | -6 | 3 |
| 19, Relegation | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 0 | -6 | 3 |
Premier League on the same day
- 5028211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- 323038XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 2:23.0
- 1525602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →