UEFA Nations League, round 4, League A, group 4 · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Estádio Do Dragão
Portugal — Norway
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Portugal to win (57%), came true.
Portugal are clear favourites: 57% against 20% for the opponent, draw 22%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Portugal 2047, Norway 1908 — Portugal clearly rated higher.
- Portugal: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Portugal — Norway What is xG? | 2.1–1.2 | |
| Portugal not to lose | 80% | |
| Norway not to lose | 42% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 66% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 34% |
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- Handicap Portugal
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- Norway goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
Head to head
- 27.09.2026Norway — Portugal1:2
Table
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 4230281The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
- 2326512The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 5829131The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.0
- 2425512The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- 7218101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
- 2027532The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
- 3929321The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →