EFL Championship, round 10 · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK · MATRADE Loftus Road
Queens Park Rangers — Derby County
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 14 October
In short
Queens Park Rangers are slightly stronger: 45% against 26%, draw 29%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Queens Park Rangers are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Queens Park Rangers — Derby County What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| Queens Park Rangers not to lose | 74% | |
| Derby County not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Queens Park Rangers
- Queens Park Rangers goals
- Derby County goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 09.10away · West Ham United1:1
- 19.09Preston North End2:2
- 12.09away · West Bromwich Albion1:1
- 09.09away · Charlton Athletic0:0
- 05.09Middlesbrough0:1
- 10.10Wrexham1:1
- 19.09away · Burnley1:1
- 12.09Birmingham City1:2
- 09.09West Bromwich Albion0:1
- 05.09away · West Ham United0:3
Head to head
- 25.04.2026Queens Park Rangers — Derby County2:3
- 25.10.2025Derby County — Queens Park Rangers1:0
- 14.02.2025Queens Park Rangers — Derby County4:0
- 05.10.2024Derby County — Queens Park Rangers2:0
- 18.04.2022Queens Park Rangers — Derby County1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8, Promotion play-offs | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 4 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 | Queens Park Rangers | 9 | 3 | +3 | 14 |
| 10 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 22, Relegation | Watford | 10 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 9 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 24, Relegation | Preston North End | 10 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
Championship on the same day
- 3127422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- 3829331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- 3327402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →