Liga MX (Mexico), round 11 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estadio Corregidora

Querétaro FC — Atlante

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Querétaro FC38%
Draw30%
Atlante32%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Querétaro FC to win (38%), came true.

Evenly matched: Querétaro FC 38%, Atlante 32%, draw 30%.

3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 65%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Atlante are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Querétaro FC — Atlante What is xG?1.6–1.5
Querétaro FC not to lose68%
Atlante not to lose62%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes65%
Both teams to score: no35%
Total over 2.559%
Total under 2.541%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Querétaro FC
  • Querétaro FC goals
  • Atlante goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Querétaro FC

  • 27.09away · Chivas2:0
  • 21.09León1:1
  • 12.09away · Tijuana1:0
  • 30.08away · Atlas3:1
  • 22.08Toluca1:2

Atlante

  • 26.09Monterrey4:2
  • 19.09away · Puebla1:1
  • 12.09Pachuca0:3
  • 06.09away · Atlas1:1
  • 29.08León1:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026 (Apertura)
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
2, Liguilla (playoffs)Toluca1162325–15+1020
3, Liguilla (playoffs)Querétaro FC1062215–8+720
4, Liguilla (playoffs)Chivas1154218–11+719
15Atlético de San Luis1133515–20-512
16Atlante1125412–17-511
17Necaxa1123615–23-89

Season 2026 (Apertura)

Full table

Next matches

  • AtlantePumas17 October · Liga MX
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
  • Santos LagunaQuerétaro FC18 October · Liga MX
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2

Liga MX on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.1
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →