Brazilian Serie A, round 29 · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Estádio Municipal Cícero de Souza Marques
RB Bragantino — Mirassol
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, RB Bragantino to win (46%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 46% fails in about 54 matches out of 100 on average.
RB Bragantino are clear favourites: 46% against 26% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings RB Bragantino are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: RB Bragantino — Mirassol What is xG? | 1.5–1.1 | |
| RB Bragantino not to lose | 74% | |
| Mirassol not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap RB Bragantino
- RB Bragantino goals
- Mirassol goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 04.10away · Atlético-MG0:1
- 21.09away · Flamengo1:2
- 13.09away · Botafogo1:1
- 05.09Bahia2:3
- 30.08away · São Paulo1:2
- 19.09Botafogo2:0
- 13.09Vitória2:2
- 06.09away · Coritiba2:1
- 03.09away · Flamengo0:2
- 31.08Palmeiras1:1
Head to head
- 14.05.2026Mirassol — RB Bragantino2:1
- 23.04.2026RB Bragantino — Mirassol1:1
- 06.04.2026Mirassol — RB Bragantino0:1
- 02.10.2025Mirassol — RB Bragantino1:1
- 06.05.2025RB Bragantino — Mirassol1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8, Copa Sudamericana | Santos | 30 | 11 | +1 | 42 |
| 9, Copa Sudamericana | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | +3 | 40 |
| 10, Copa Sudamericana | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 0 | 39 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | -5 | 32 |
Next matches
- BahiaMirassol12 October · Brasileirao5326211The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
- RB BragantinoCruzeiro13 October · Brasileirao4228301The most likely outcome came true: 14:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
Brasileirao on the same day
- 5226221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.5
- 4827251The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- 5526191The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 5126231The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
- 5227211The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →