Brazilian Serie A, round 30 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Casa de Apostas Arena Fonte Nova
Bahia — Mirassol
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Bahia to win (53%), came true.
Bahia are clear favourites: 53% against 21% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bahia are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Bahia: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bahia — Mirassol What is xG? | 1.8–1.1 | |
| Bahia not to lose | 79% | |
| Mirassol not to lose | 47% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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Form
- 09.10away · Palmeiras0:1
- 21.09away · Athletico Paranaense1:2
- 15.09Remo2:1
- 05.09away · RB Bragantino3:2
- 31.08Internacional3:2
- 08.10away · RB Bragantino1:1
- 19.09Botafogo2:0
- 13.09Vitória2:2
- 06.09away · Coritiba2:1
- 03.09away · Flamengo0:2
Head to head
- 12.04.2026Mirassol — Bahia1:2
- 01.09.2025Mirassol — Bahia5:1
- 13.04.2025Bahia — Mirassol1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Copa Libertadores | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | +11 | 51 |
| 5, Copa Libertadores | Bahia | 30 | 13 | +8 | 49 |
| 6, Copa Sudamericana | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | +2 | 48 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | -5 | 32 |
Next matches
- MirassolInternacional17 October · Brasileirao4229281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- BahiaFlamengo19 October · Brasileirao3329392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
Brasileirao on the same day
- 3029412The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →